In order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, on March 15, 2022, the People's Bank of China launched a 200 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation. Among them, the 1-year MLF winning rate was 2.85%, and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was 2.10%, both the same as before. Experts predict that the possibility of another cut in MLF interest rates in the second quarter will increase.

The MLF due this month is 100 billion yuan, and the central bank has implemented a 200 billion yuan operation, which means that this month will be an incremental sequel. The just-released financial data for February showed that credit and social financing increased less year-on-year, and the growth rate of stock at the end of the month declined. The MLF increase operation can directly supplement the medium and long-term liquidity of banks and improve their lending capabilities.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the central bank will continue to adhere to a prudent monetary policy and maintain a reasonable and sufficient market liquidity through the "MLF + reverse repurchase" combination.

Wen Bin said: "At present, my country's economic development is facing triple pressures, and the external environment is complex and changeable. It is necessary to maintain strategic focus and strengthen cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustment. In response to the insufficient demand for household loans and medium and long-term loans, we must make good use of monetary policy. The total amount and structure of the tools have dual functions, and measures such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts can be taken in a timely manner to enhance the confidence of market players, stabilize and expand market demand, and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range."

The incremental sequel of MLF this month has released a signal of marginal easing of monetary policy, which will help stabilize market expectations and curb the upward momentum of market interest rates. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed to reporters that the MLF interest rate has remained unchanged for two consecutive months, and the monetary policy has entered an observation period. Due to the current weak consumption and the continued cold real estate situation, and the downward pressure on the economy since the second half of last year has not been fundamentally eased, the possibility of another reduction in the MLF interest rate in the second quarter has increased. In addition, the recent domestic epidemics have repeated, or may disrupt economic operations in the short term.

Wang Qing said: "The financial data in February was lower than expected, especially the loan growth rate continued to hit a new low in the past 20 years, indicating that the previous policy release of 'increase the implementation of monetary policy and guide financial institutions to vigorously expand loan issuance' has not been fully transmitted. To the loan side. The interest rate cut is still in the central bank's policy toolbox, and the urgency to moderately increase the growth rate of credit, social financing and M2 through policy interest rate cuts has increased."

Since the MLF interest rate has not been lowered, the expectation of easing credit is still fermenting. Xu Yang, chief economist of Hong Kong Zhongrui Fund, told reporters that the central bank’s equivalent parity sequel MLF has released a signal to continue to maintain stable funds, which is mainly due to the recent reasonable and sufficient domestic liquidity.

Wang Qing also believes that, unlike overseas inflation that forces its central bank to tighten monetary policy, in 2022, the domestic CPI operation center will only rise moderately, and will continue to remain within the control target range of 3.0%; The conflict has pushed up the prices of crude oil and other international commodities, but the year-on-year increase in domestic PPI is still a major trend. Inflation factors will not hinder the subsequent marginal easing of domestic monetary policy.

"Although the Fed will start raising interest rates in March, the domestic monetary policy will adhere to 'me-based', not only will it not follow up with overseas tightening, but there will also be marginal room for easing." Wang Qing predicts that the MLF interest rate may increase in the second quarter. It is lowered by 10 basis points again, and at the same time, the possibility of implementing a comprehensive RRR cut is also high. This means that in the short term, monetary policy will still be in a period of concentrated efforts, and the process of easing credit and easing money will continue to be promoted. Steady progress in monetary policy will be an important support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market.

证券日报记者 包兴安

见习记者 郭冀川

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